[01] Opeyemi Rabiu Salau, Department of Physics, Ekiti State University, Ado-Ekiti, Nigeria. [02] Oluwafisayo Adeteju Adeleye, Department of Guidance and Counseling, Ekiti State University, Ado-Ekiti, Nigeria. [03] Fatai Ayodele Adeleye, Department of Physics, Ekiti State University, Ado-Ekiti, Nigeria. [04] Jose Americo, Department of Surveillance, National Institute of Health, Maputo, Mozambique.

Malaria disease is a major health problem worldwide and especially in Africa where the favourable environmental conditions have led to high malaria infections and the death of millions of people. This study investigates the annual variations in the observed malaria infections from 12 Local Government Areas (LGAs) of Ekiti State, Nigeria for the period 1985-2014. The analysis of the anomalies of the malaria cases shows 10-year cycles with anomalously high number of cases in the period from 1985 to 1996 and anomalously less number of cases in the period from 1997 to 2013. Interestingly, the anomaly correlation of the number of malaria cases and the sea-surface temperature (SST) reveals a significant pattern similar to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in the Pacific Ocean with negative correlation between the local SST anomalies. The cycles of the malaria cases are also in good agreement with changes in the observed rainfall and temperature patterns over the study area. The overall result suggests that the link of Malaria to the PDO might be used as a long lead forecast predictor of Malaria over the study region and possibly beyond.

Malaria Disease, Mosquito, Rainfall, Temperature, Ekiti, Climate Change, PDO

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