[01] Lamek Nahayo, Faculty of Environmental Studies, University of Lay Adventists of Kigali, Kigali, Rwanda. [02] Gabriel Habiyaremye, Faculty of Environmental Studies, University of Lay Adventists of Kigali, Kigali, Rwanda. [03] Alphonse Kayiranga, Faculty of Environmental Studies, University of Lay Adventists of Kigali, Kigali, Rwanda. [04] Egide Kalisa, Faculty of Sciences, Auckland University of Technology, Auckland, New Zealand. [05] Christophe Mupenzi, Faculty of Environmental Studies, University of Lay Adventists of Kigali, Kigali, Rwanda. [06] Daniel Fred Nsanzimana, Faculty of Environmental Studies, University of Lay Adventists of Kigali, Kigali, Rwanda.

The changes on the rainfall intensity and frequency greatly affect the agricultural production, and the most impacted are poor societies practicing rain-fed agriculture. This study assessed the impact of rainfall variability on maize production during the agricultural season B of 2015 and 2016 in the Eastern Rwanda. The input data were the seasonal maize cropland, production and monthly maximum rainfall analyzed with use of Origin Pro. Software for Statistical Analysis. The results indicated decreasing rainfall in 2015, specifically at the Kibungo-Kazo (from 273.4 to 81.3 mm), Nyagatare (from 105.8 to 52.2 mm) and Kabarondo meteorological stations (from 214.9 to 70.6 mm) in March and April, respectively. Similar rainfall decreasing trends were recorded in 2016. These rainfall scenarios disturbed the normal rainfall calendar, which usually starts from end of March and keeps on increasing in April up to the mid-May. And consequently, early dry season started in May instead of June in 2016 as normal. In addition, it was noted that these rainfall patterns occurred during the maize water requiring period (April-May) for its growth and production, and were associated to the recorded maize production failure, which reduced from 57,695 to 20,967Mt in season B of 2015 and 2016, respectively. This expresses that the sector is still rain-fed and suggests, for the adaptation to (1) introduce drought tolerant crops, (2) the Rwanda Meteorology Agency should work closely with farmers and spread climatic data in advance to alert farmers, and (3) exploring the available ground and surface water can take over the rainfall shortage experienced in the area.

Agriculture, Eastern Province, Maize, Rainfall, Rwanda

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