[01] Osisanwo Bukonla Grace, Department of Economics, Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye, Ogun State, Nigeria. [02] Okuneye Babatunde Adekunle, Department of Economics, Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye, Ogun State, Nigeria.

Over the past three decades, Nigeria export base has grown tremendously but significant part of it is dominated by oil export which reflects the mono-cultural base of the Nigerian economy. This study investigates whether the Nigerian economic growth is export-led between 1980 and 2013 by regressing real output on total oil and non-oil export, import, investment, total labour force and exchange rate of naira vis-a-vis U.S dollar. The stochastic process of the time series variables employed are found to converge to stationary at higher difference level between one and two but their linear combination are found be co-integrated based on the Engle-Granger two procedures test. The estimated co-integrating regression model revealed that Nigerian economy is positively and significantly export driven in the long-run and therefore supporting the “export-led growth” hypothesis. Likewise, the hypothesis also holds in the short-run based on the estimated error correction model. For policy simulation, the estimated ECM model revealed that 68% of disequilibrium in long-run growth nexus between export and growth in Nigeria is restored in the first period. This implies that it will take time before exports and other incorporated macroeconomic factors can transit economic growth to its long-run equilibrium in Nigeria.

Entrepreneurs, Export, Macroeconomic Policies, Export-Led Growth Hypothesis, Economic Growth

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